by Nike Doggart, Technical Advisor, Tanzania Forest Conservation Group

147 countries pledge to commit the planet to disastrous climate change…

2^nd December 2015

The big question.

Will humanity reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to within a level that will avoid disastrous climate change, according to the best available scientific research?

The answer presented yesterday:  no.

Yesterday evening, the UNFCCC presented the findings of the ‘Synthesis report on the aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined contributions’.

Basically, they added up 147 countries’ pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and compared it with what is needed to keep the planet below 2 degrees C by the end of the century.  Humanity fell well short.

Countries pledged to increase aggregate emissions to 56.7 GtCO2-eq/yr in 2030 compared with 49 GtCO2-eq/yr in 2010. Yes. Increase.

Scientists advise that we can emit 1000 GtCO2-eq between 2011 and 2100 to stay below a 2 degree increase.  Based on the pledges presented yesterday, humanity will use up 75% of that by 2030 alone.

The UNFCCC report did not provide an indication of what the likely impact would be of the combined pledges, in terms of end-of-century temperature increase. It only stated that humanity was not on track to keep temperature increases to below 2 degrees C. However it indicated that if humanity could reduce emissions by 3.3 % each year after 2030, we could still be on track to staying within a 2 degree C increase scenario.  Based on what has been pledged so far, this seems an unlikely scenario.

A possible glimmer of hope came from the Climate Vulnerable Forum, a coalition of 30 countries particularly vulnerable to climate change. The Forum issued a statement on Day 1 of the CoP calling for countries to raise the level of ambition to aim to keep within a 1.5 degrees C increase; and to shift to 100% renewable energy by mid-Century.

The group includes Tanzania as well as countries such as the Maldives and Tuvalu whose very survival are at risk from climate change-induced sea level rise.  Yesterday the group were awarded the ‘Ray of the Day’ award,  based on the comedic ‘Fossil of the Day’ CoP tradition, for their bold pledges.

For Tanzania’s forests, the CoP has so far delivered promises that are compatible with climate models indicating higher temperatures and less predictable rainfall (but probably higher rainfall overall), for the Eastern Arc Mountain forests.  Under this scenario, maintaining connectivity between forests is essential in order to allow plant and animal species to respond through altitudinal and soil moisture availability-related shifts.  Aside from the ecological responses, the impact of temperature increases on human behaviour is likely to be the more significant factor.  Agriculture is the main driver of deforestation in Tanzania. Higher temperatures and less predictable rainfall will affect agriculture.   Will that drive more farmers into shifting cultivation? Or will it provide impetus to improve the conservation of the soil-protecting, moisture-conserving forests? And how can we help farmers to adapt without clearing forests?  Tomorrow  is farmers’ day at the CoP.  Let’s see what insights we can gain as to how to protect Tanzania’s forests from more agriculture-driven deforestation under a hotter, less predictable climate.